Prior art approaches for determining an actionable metric, such as ROI, for evaluating the desirability of active health care management programs, and the depth of penetration of such programs, have proven inadequate. The results of such prior art calculations were not particularly accurate, often overstating or understating the actual outcomes, and such calculations further involved inefficient, cumbersome and time consuming processes. Consequently, there exists a need for a new and improved metric, and simplified systems and methods for generating such a metric, that more accurately simulates and/or forecasts expected program outcomes for a custom population.